Online Dating free essay sample

A lot of Fish Internet dating is one of the most well known approaches to meet the perfect individual for a relationship. These sites are to assist an individual with getting to know each other with meeting and conceivably dating. Dating sites offer two individuals an opportunity to become acquainted with each other without the total information on what the other individual resembles, and makes the science couples requirement for a relationship without glances disrupting the general flow. Web based dating likewise takes into account individuals to become more acquainted with others without leaving the solace of their own home. Not exclusively is internet dating ordinary, it’s modest and even at times free. The measure of individuals accessible for one to meet is unending. You can peruse a profile and surprisingly fast talk with that potential admirer. Be that as it may, there are drawbacks in free web based dating. Free methods anybody can approach joining. We will compose a custom article test on Web based Dating or on the other hand any comparable point explicitly for you Don't WasteYour Time Recruit WRITER Just 13.90/page There are numerous individuals out there that are eager to adulterate their goals when joining these free locales. A lot of fish for example â€Å"is one of the world’s biggest free dating locales. At present they have in excess of 10 million enrolled individuals, fundamentally from the United States. † (dating site surveys. com) With more than 10 million daters, what number of could truly be searching for that genuine love? Truly Pof has highlights like private informing, im, and science coordinating, yet with no expense, there is no hindrance for making an enrollment. This can mean trick specialists, wedded people or individuals searching for only a snare â€up. â€Å"Plenty of fish dating gatherings are a spot to meet single and get dating guidance of offer dating encounters etc.Hopefully you will have a fabulous time meeting singles and evaluate this web based dating thing†¦ Remember that we are the biggest 100% free internet dating administration, so youll never need to pay a dime to meet your perfect partner. † (Marcus, maker of pof) 25,000 New Singles Per Day! Username: Password: Email: Confirm Email: Gender: Birthdate: , Country: Ethnicity: Enter LET TERS showed under Circles from above: I Agree to the terms of administration: Over 30 Million Registered Singles! 1. With more than 145 Million month to month guests Plentyoffish is by a long shot the market chief in online dating.You won't locate whatever other webpage that has more singles hoping to meet new individuals. 2. In the wake of taking our Chemistry Test we coordinate you with characters that lead to dependable stable connections. We coordinate you with daters that will meet your enthusiastic needs. 3. Find Your Relationship Needs. We will mention to you what you need in a relationship, where you messed up (with out knowing it) in past connections and an altered activity intend to make your next relationship effective. We will likewise give you 33 points to talk about that are significant for long haul success.This is a unique relationship instructing that you wont discover anyplace else! 4. This internet dating website has been on magazine covers highlighted in the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, The Today Show, CNN, FOX and several others. In any case, by far most of singles catch wind of us on the grounds that their companions have had a great encounter utilizing our dating administration. 5. Would you like to be with somebody? Would you like to discover your perfect partner? Consider it, what other place are you going to discover a great many singles across the board place searching for someone?If you are not kidding about finding a relationship you ought to Signup Now and discover your perfect partner !! A lot of fish includes a profile with an image, client data, sexual orientation, nation and ethnicity. The client can place in their area, the sexual orientation and physical characteristics they are keen on, just as their physical appearance to help locate a potential match. This website provides may approaches to discover the individual you are searching for, these incorporate however not constrained to; relationship type, relationship status, what you are searching for, religion and language.Even with every one of these choices, an individual can at present discover individuals that lie, have an awful demeanor, dependent on web based dating destinations, or are shallow disapproved. In the wake of perusing numerous surveys and having encountered Pof myself, I have inferred that it is a decent spot to meet individuals and have some good times, yet that numerous individuals are not who they state they are and additionally not searching for anything genuine. As a companion once said to me â€Å"Plenty of fish is a decent spot for a single night rendezvous, individuals on there are not genuine. This site is unmistakably minimal in excess of a sex site.Given the measure of time and exertion and low reaction rates on his site for what reason would a person even be on there except if he was fundamentally pursuing sex? † (Lindsey Miller) She gave me this discourse after I disclosed to her I was giving it a shot. I have inferred that this free dating site permits people to utilize Plenty of fish basically for simply dating and not genuine connections. This site is certifiably not a decent spot of value dates, just amount dates. In the event that you do decided to utilize a web based dating administration, picked the destinations that you need to put cash in it. At the point when an individual needs to put cash in something, they will put a greater amount of themselves in it as well.

Specific Population and the Advocate Role

Explicit Population and the Advocate Role Explicit Population and the Advocate RoleMonique ConeBSHS442March 21, 2011Mary Beth BovaSpecific Population and the Advocate Role Promoter Role PAGE 1 Advocate Role PAGE 2Specific Population and the Advocate RoleMonique ConeBSHS442March 21, 2011Mary Beth BovaSpecific Population and the Advocate RoleDivorce mother attempting to get full guardianship for her youngster and needing the house. This mother needs an assistance from an Advocate. As an Advocate they must help and battle for the customer. The promoter should be the separation mother voice. In this paper, I will show the job of the supporter for this extraordinary populace group.As a backer we need to ensure we tune in to everything the customer needs cautiously. To ensure we get every one of their needs and needs. Supporter needs to instruct the customer on the issue of separation and youngster guardianship. As a promoter we host to haggle with all gatherings, including the ex-husband.Going Down (album)We need to ensure that all offices the customer is working with are following up on all the guarantees they gave the customer. It is the promoter employme nt to ensure everything is going smooth and is set up. We need to ensure that we implement the customer rights (Barsky, 2007).Advocate needs to likewise set up a brief for the customer and give a declaration for chiefs. Supporter need to ensure they focus on the customers request and bolster them. Promoter will likewise speak to a customer if there's a meeting or court hearing. We could likewise put out an uplifting demeanor to the network about our customer to counter negative generalizations. As a promoter we can likewise enable our customer to be a supporter all alone carries on. We can assist them with defining up a decent objective. Teach the customer about the...

Human Behaviour Decision-Making Platform Assignment - 275 Words

Human Behaviour: Decision-Making Platform Assignment (Research Paper Sample) Content: [First name Last name][Instructors Name][Course Number]DATE \@ "d MMMM yyyy" 11 November 2016Ethical ReasoningEthical reasoning is a common thing heavily emphasized in each and every decision-making platform. In any future-oriented business, technology is a priority, and to ensure the technology is one that is beneficial, ethical reasoning must be present. This is so as to ensure that through the technology, the business is able to meet the needs of all its investors, the performance is kept at its highest level, the statutory requirements are adhered to and errors are eradicated. What makes it difficult for businesses to forego ethical reasoning when dealing with technology? One, selfish approaches where one wants his or her opinion only recognized and second, pressure from rivals which makes the company to jump into conclusions in an attempt to have a fast win over the competitors. Cultural differences; where the companys cultures does not match with the decision ma kers cultures and ideological differences; where opinions and ideas argue against each other, are also contributors to foregoing ethical reasoning. (Lawrence Weber, 2012)Germline gene therapy, being one of the most potential advanced genetic technology, has been on debate as to whether it should be developed or not with different parties concerned being in argument. It comes with its pros and cons which rates whether it is fit to be executed or not. Going through a list of the pros, include; the potential to eradicate disease by aiding in replacement of disease-prone cells with new healthy ones (The cons include; it may not be affordable to all as genetic alterations are normally expensive, disorders if errors ...

A Compare and Contrast of Horror and Science...

The good thing about films is that we not only have the opportunity to choose from a wide selection of different genres, but also compare them and understand their purpose in the world. The Horror genre has used the basic principles throughout time, and as a result, films of this type have not proven to be as timeless as another genre: Science Fiction/Fantasy. At first, these two genres might at times seem similar as they have at several occasions been blended together, but their basic, common theme serves different meanings about humans. I shall compare and contrast these two genres and focus on both classic films and modern films. From the Horror genre perspective I shall discuss Psycho (1960) and The Mist (2007), while in the Science Fiction/Fantasy genre I will examine 2001: A Space Odyssey (1968), Pan’s Labyrinth (2006), and Serenity (2005). Although the Science Fiction/Fantasy genre and the Horror Genre share some similarities, the differences lie in their focus on human progress. The genres relationship lies in the danger of human lives in an unfamiliar milieu. There is a threat to the lives of the characters whose fear and danger is a common element. The source of this can be from both humans and imaginary monsters. The horror films Psycho and The Mist both have humans as the real threat to the main characters. Schizophrenic Norman Bates in Psycho is a heinous, disturbed killer who dresses up in woman’s clothes when he is about to kill someone. The danger is firstShow MoreRelatedHitchcocks Film Psycho Essay1575 Words   |  7 PagesHitchcocks Film Psycho Ever since the first horror movies were produced they have attracted huge audiences seeking to be scared, chilled and thrilled. Horror movies are so popular because the audience can get the adrenaline rush of being scared without actually putting themselves in danger, and also the audience ultimately get a rush of relief at the end of the film when the killer is killed. This is the same reason why people go onRead MoreEssay on The Bloody Chamber3593 Words   |  15 Pagesrole of women in the gothic genre is as victims always subjected to male authority’, compare and contrast to which this interpretation is relevant to your three chosen texts. By Kristina Addis Within My Last Duchess, The Bloody Chamber and Dracula, there is evidence to suggest that women within the gothic genre as portrayed as victims of male authority, as well as evidence to disprove this argument, instead suggesting that it is the women within the Gothic genre which makes themselves victimsRead MoreGender Roles in Movies Essay2487 Words   |  10 PagesGender Roles in Contemporary Film and Music The representations of women in film. In contemporary film womens roles in films have varied quiet considerably between genres, geographical placement, and between period settings. These factors contribute to the different representations of womens roles in the film they are present in. These roles are diverse going from the traditional maternal role to that of manipulative murderer. In contemporary media these roles are given higher statusRead MoreSeminar: Literary Theory Applied to H.P. Lovecraft-Notably â€Å"the Beast in the Cave†6821 Words   |  28 Pagesever expanding under artists and authors inspired by the atheist views presented in the genre weird fiction in which Lovecraft is the crowned proprietor. â€Å"The oldest and strongest emotion of mankind is fear, and the oldest and strongest kind of fear is fear of the unknown.† Is the quintessential element in understanding the works of H.P. Lovecraft in his own the words (Lovecraft, H. P. Supernatural Horror in Literature). Even when wrote with such debatable simplicity, it is an excellent self-descriptionRead MoreEssay on The Media Violence Debate3490 Words   |  14 Pagesnetworks to think of more programs – the weirder, the better because people had the tendency to watch reality programs that exude the abnormal. Moreover, these reality shows that feature people who have no talent at all, such as MTV’s hit Jersey Shore, contrast to wholesome programs in the past and yes, some modern ones, that showcase celebrities with real talents or programs that are worth our precious time. Marshall McLuhan is not known by many but to those who are into the field of media, heRead More The Japanese Entertainment Industry Essay4213 Words   |  17 Pagesproduce animation for a sophisticated audience. Osamu Tezuka adapted comics, the most popular form of entertainment in Japan, to his animation. â€Å"Tezuka was a creative dynamo whose comics tackled nearly every possible subject: science fiction, action/adventure, romance, horror, and adult drama, creating a readership which encompassed nearly every possible age group† (Ledoux, 2). When he began producing animation, it too was varied in subject matter. Keeping with Tezuka’s creative process, nearly allRead MoreReview Of The Sidekick By Edgar Allan Poe4140 Words   |  17 Pagesclassification. A noteworthy contrast between Doyle s investigator stories and Poe s is Doyle s consideration of a sidekick character to help Sherlock Holmes in his adventures. The sidekick has become a fundamental segment of numerous literary, social, and cinematic detective crime fictions. The rising popularity of crime fiction through the Golden Age into the late 19th and early 20th century, has contributed to the sidekick turning into a fundamental element of this genre. Modern depictions of theRead MoreFrankenstein Study Guide14107 Words   |  57 PagesTHE GLENCOE LITERATURE LIBRARY Study Guide for Frankenstein by Mary Shelley i To the Teachern The Glencoe Literature Library presents full-length novels and plays bound together with shorter selections of various genres that relate by theme or topic to the main reading. Each work in the Library has a two-part Study Guide that contains a variety of resources for both you and your students. Use the Guide to plan your instruction of the work and enrich your classroom presentations. InRead MoreEssay on Buffy the Vampire Slayer5067 Words   |  21 PagesBuffy the Vampire Slayer Mentors feature prominently in the Gothic genre. From Dr Van Helsing in Bram Stokers Dracula, who leads the young heroes into their quest to annihilate the Count, to Rupert Giles, the Watcher in Buffy the Vampire Slayer, older and more experienced adults have provided essential guidance for the younger protagonists of the genre. The differences in media of expression and the subsequent adaptations from novel to television series has not affected the presence of thisRead MoreMetz Film Language a Semiotics of the Cinema PDF100902 Words   |  316 Pagess Essais sur la signification au cinema, volume 1, was published by Editions Klincksieck in 1971,  © Editions Klincksieck, 1968. ÃŽËœThe paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of the American National Standard for Information Sciences-Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials, ANSI Z39.48-1992. To George Blin, Profesor at the Collà ¨ge de France, whithout whom none of these pages would have been started. CONTENTS A Note on the Translation by Bertrand Augst, ix Preface

Human Trafficking is Slavery Essay - 1605 Words

In this essay, the history of human trafficking will be examined, followed by who is affected by trafficking. Next the scope and types of exploitation will be discussed. Human trafficking is an issue that affects countries all over the world. Governments have made an effort to curb trafficking, however these efforts have been very narrowly focused. American ignorance has led to poor handling of the issues by policy makers. Finally the essay will discuss a proposed solution and set some goals for society to work on in the future. When examining the traditional definition of slavery, it focuses on one human being taking ownership of another. Traditionally slaves were transported by lengthy sea voyages. However, with advancements in†¦show more content†¦The remaining twenty five percent end up used for a combination of sex and labor trafficking, or are used in some other unknown trafficking operation. Victims of commercial sexual exploitation are comprised of roughly ninety eight percent women and the remaining two percent are men and boys. However, children make up somewhere between 40 to 50 percent of the individuals involved in forced labor (Hepburn and Simon 2). Modern day slavery is far more profitable than slavery has been historically. This increase in profitability is due to the cost of exploiting a slave being miniscule in comparison to immense profits that a criminal can reap. The low risk involved for slave exploiters coupled with paltry conviction rates, has been a key factor in driving the tremendous demand for new slaves (Kara 69). It is astonishing to note that worldwide profits for human trafficking organizations exceed $44.3 billion annually (Hepburn and Simon 2). While the majority of sex trafficking victims are typically runaway or thrown-away youths, many other victims get involved in prostitution out of desperation to get things they need or want, like drugs or money (Walker-Rodriguez and Hill 2). Despite the news media’s constant focus on sex trafficking, there are other types of trafficking that occur outside the sex industry (Uy 209). For example, many boys are trafficked at a young age into the Middle East to be camel jockeys; disabled individualsShow MoreRelatedHuman Trafficking and Slavery880 Words   |  4 PagesHuman Trafficking and Slavery: Are the World’s Nations Doing Enough s to Stamp It Out? Slavery has existed since the beginning of human evolution (CQ Researcher 2010). The Civil War ended slavery in the United States in 1865. Worldwide slavery was prohibited during the late 1920’s. Although slavery is prohibited, millions of victims are forced into captivity. Victims are often kidnapped and forced into a lifetime of servitude and prostitution. Other victims of slavery are lured by the promise ofRead MoreSlavery and Human Trafficking2330 Words   |  10 Pages Slavery used to be obvious. Before it was abolished by the 13th Amendment, having ownership of other human beings was common and widely accepted. Though abolitionists at the time were opposed to slavery, they were not surprised by it. Today, however, many people would be surprised to know that slavery still exists, even in the United States. The elusive trade for sex slaves is hiding in brothels and hotels in every city. It hides at truck stops, residential houses, sporting events, and even onlineRead Mor eSlavery Vs Human Trafficking1572 Words   |  7 Pages Slavery still exists currently in contemporary society, but present-day slavery differs from the one centuries ago. Human trafficking is a type of slavery in modern society that involves the use of coercion or fraud to control victims into performing activities while ignoring the victim’s consent. Human trafficking has many misconceptions such as only women and children are victims or sex trafficking is the same as human trafficking. People are tricked by traffickers because of their manipulativeRead MoreHuman Trafficking: Slavery Today 1404 Words   |  6 Pagesservice professionals work to address the problem of human trafficking in a number of ways. Social workers are unique in their approach to this issue because they can address it from a number of angles. For example, social workers concentrate on both the individual victim as well as their social and economic situation which distinguishes it from other professions such as counseling (Palmer, 2010). Social workers meet the needs of human trafficking victims according to the principles outlined in theRead MoreHuman Trafficking Is The Modern Slavery1415 Words   |  6 Pages When forced into sex trafficking statistics state that 67 percent of prisoners are forced into labor, 55 percent are women and girls, and 26 percent are children that endure the conditions and harshness of this generation s modern slavery. Human trafficking is the modern slavery throughout the globe and 27,000 cases have been reported to the NHTRC hotline in the last eight years alone (Human Trafficking). Human trafficking is of all ages, all genders, and anyone can be forced into the labor. ThereRead MoreModern Slavery : Human Trafficking1204 Words   |  5 PagesOur nation has had many encounters with the world’s most horrifying phenomenon, modern slavery, also known as human trafficking. Modern slavery consists of people being taken away by force or unknowingly of the situation to become exploited in many ways no matter the age, ethnicity, or color of the skin (DEF). Not only has it become a disgusting wicked disease but, it has taken over the country’s freedom. We as people living in the United States are guaranteed â€Å"freedom†, which isn’t true in the absoluteRead MoreHuman Trafficking, the Modern Slavery1034 Words   |  5 PagesGlobal Perspectives Essay #2 Human Trafficking Causes and Effects Human Trafficking, The Modern Slavery Introduction Human trafficking is a big problem all around the world. Every year, thousands of men, women and children are kidnapped by traffickers, and forced into sexual exploitation and slavery. In this essay, I will talk about the causes of human trafficking and what effects it has on the victims, families, and society. Causes The cause of human trafficking is mainly the organizedRead MoreSex Slavery And Human Trafficking2202 Words   |  9 Pages Sex Slavery and Human Trafficking in Nigeria Ramapo College of New Jersey Kaitlyn Cestaro Human Trafficking is defined in article 3, paragraph (a) of the Protocol to Prevent, Suppress and Punish Trafficking in Persons, as the recruitment, transportation, transfer, harbouring or receipt of persons, by means of the threat or use of force or other forms of coercion, of abduction, of fraud, of deception, of the abuse of power or of a position of vulnerability or of the giving or receivingRead MoreModern Day Slavery: Human Trafficking 866 Words   |  4 PagesBlood Borne Connections.) Human trafficking is the modern day slavery, it involves taking control over a person through force, fraud or coercion to exploit the victim for forced labor, sexual exploitation. or both (â€Å"What† par.1). This is become the sad reality for many, approximately three out of every 1,000 people worldwide are being forced into this such slavery. Victims of human trafficking are people of all backgrounds and ages, no one is safe from the dirty hands of human traffickers. E very yearRead MoreHuman Trafficking Is A Form Of Modern Slavery906 Words   |  4 Pages Human Trafficking Have you ever heard about human trafficking? Some people would say that human trafficking is no more in this world because now everyone become educated they themselves became victim. Others would say that human trafficking is illegal business, human being sale human being. Even I did not believe that human trafficking was here in the United States, but human trafficking was all over the world. â€Å"Trafficking in human beings is a dressing phenomenon

Safeguarding short questions free essay sample

Assignmemt 204 CI – Explain what a social worker must do if they become aware of unsafe practice. †¢ As soon as a social worker becomes aware of unsafe practice they must report it to their line manager or someone in charge immediately. Everything must be documented with dates/times and signed. Corrective measures should be sorted as soon as realistically possible. CII – Describe what a social worker must do if unsafe practice is reported but nothing is done to ensure it is corrected. †¢ The care worker should report to someone in a higher position, or to a higher/different organisation. Making sure every detail is written down with dates/times and signed. CIII – Describe three factors that may make individuals more vulnerable to abuse than others. †¢ Individual circumstance: Someone who is suffering from mental/physical health issues. †¢ Workplace: Workplace may have a lack of trained staff, to few staff, work pressure. †¢ Low self esteem: May lead to someone using power to abuse, being bullied. We will write a custom essay sample on Safeguarding short questions or any similar topic specifically for you Do Not WasteYour Time HIRE WRITER Only 13.90 / page CIV – Explain how adopting a person centered approach which offers choices and upholds rights can empower an individual and help to reduce the likelihood of abuse. †¢ Promoting choices and rights will cause understanding between individuals. Respect and tolerance can be firmed which can reduce abuse. CV – Explain how encouraging and promoting active participation can help to reduce the likelihood of abuse. †¢ Treat each individual with respect, dignity and compassion. Respect their views and choices. This can help gain self esteem and realize values, rights and the power to protect them from abuse. CVI – Explain how an effective and easy to use complaints procedure can help to reduce the likelihood of abuse. †¢ With easy to access complaints systems someone wanting to report abuse isn  much more likely to do so, in which may deter abuse, but if making a complaint is hard people will be less likely to report it, which will male abuse easier to get away with.

L.L. Bean Item forecasting case study Essay Example

L.L. Bean Item forecasting case study Paper Harvard Business School 9-893-003 Rev. September 7, 1993 L. L. Bean, Inc. Item Forecasting and Inventory Management When you order an item from an L. L. Bean catalog and were out of stock, Im the guy to blame. And if we end up liquidating a bunch of womens wool cashmere blazers, its my fault. No one understands how tough it is. Mark Fasold, Vice President† Inventory Management, was describing the challenge of item forecasting at L. L. Bean. Forecasting demand at the aggregate level is a piece of cake†if were running short of expectations, we Just dip deeper into our customer list and send out some more atalogs. But we have to decide how many chamois shirts and how many chino trousers to buy, and if were too high on one and too low on the other, its no solace to know that we were exactly right on the average. Top management understands this in principle, but they are understandably disturbed that errors at the item level are so large. In a catalog business like ours, you really capture demand. Thats the good news. The bad news is, you learn what a lousy Job youre doing trying to match demand with supply. Its not like that in a department store, say, where a customer ay come in looking for a dress shirt and lets the display of available shirts generate the demand for a particular item. Or if a customer has some particular item in mind but its not available, he or she may Just walk out of the store. In a department store you never know the real demand or the consequences of understocking. But in our business every sale is generated by a customer demanding a particular item, either by mail or by phone. If we havent got it, and the customer cancels the order, we know it. Rol Fessenden, Manager†Inventory Systems, added: We know that forecast errors are inevitable. Competition, the economy, weather are all factors. But demand at the item level is also affected by customer behavior, which is very hard to predict, or even to explain in retrospect. Every so often some item takes off and becomes a runaway, far exceeding our demand forecasts. Once in a while we can detect the trend early on and, with a cooperative vendor, get more product manufactured in a hurry and chase demand; most of the time, however, the runaways leave us Just turning customers away. We will write a custom essay sample on L.L. Bean Item forecasting case study specifically for you for only $16.38 $13.9/page Order now We will write a custom essay sample on L.L. Bean Item forecasting case study specifically for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Hire Writer We will write a custom essay sample on L.L. Bean Item forecasting case study specifically for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Hire Writer And for every runaway, theres a dog item that sells way below expectations and that you couldnt even give away to customers. Annual costs of lost sales and backorders were conservatively estimated to be $11 million; costs associated with having too much of the wrong inventory were an additional $10 million. This case was prepared by Professor Arthur Schleifer, Jr. as the basis for class discussion rather than to illustrate either effective or ineffective handling of an administrative situation. Copyright 1992 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College. To order copies or request permission to reproduce materials, call 1-800-545-7685, write Harvard Business School Publishing, Boston, MA 02163, or go to ttp://www. hbsp. harvard. edu. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, used in a spreadsheet, or transmitted in any form or by any means†electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise†without the permission of Harvard Business School. 893-003 L. L. Bean Background In 1912 Leon Leonwood Bean invented the Maine Hunting Shoe (a combination of lightweight leather uppers and rubber bottoms). He obtained a list of nonresident Maine hunting license holders, prepared a descriptive mail-order circular, set up hop in his brothers basement in Freeport, Maine, and started a nationwide mail- order business. The inauguration of the U. S. Post Offices domestic parcel post service in that year provided a means of delivering orders to customers. When L. L. Bean died in 1967, at the age of 94, sales had reached $4. 75 million, his company employed 200 people, and an annual catalog was distributed to a mailing list of 600,000 people. L. L. s Golden Rule had been Sell good merchandise at a reasonable profit, treat your customers like human beings, and theyll always come back for more. When Leon Gorman, L. L. s grandson, succeeded him as president in 1967, he sought to expand and modernize the business without deviating from his grandfathers Golden Rule. By 1991, L. L. Bean, Inc. as a major cataloger, manufacturer, and retailer in the outdoor sporting specialty field: Catalog sales in 1990 were $528 million, with an additional $71 million in sales from the companys 50,000 square-foot retail store in Freeport. Twenty-two different catalogs (often referred to as books by company employees)†114 million pieces in all†were mailed that year. There were six million active customers. The mail-order business had been giving way to tele phone orders after the company installed nationwide 800 service in 1986. By 1991, 80% of all orders came in by telephone. Major direct- mail competitors included Lands End, Eddie Bauer, Talbots, and Orvis. A 1991 Consumer Reports survey on customer satisfaction with mail-order companies found L. L. Bean heading the list for overall satisfaction in every category for which they offered merchandise. In explaining why L. L. Bean had not expanded its retail operations beyond the one store in Freeport, Leon Gorman contrasted the direct- arketing (catalog) and retail businesses. The two approaches require very different kinds of management. Mail-order marketers are very analytic, quantitatively oriented. Retailers have to be creative, promotional, pizzazzy, merchandise-oriented. Its tough to assemble one management team that can handle both functions. 1 Product Lines L. L. Beans product line was classified hierarchically (see Exhibit 1). At the highest level of aggregation were Merchandise Groups: mens and womens accessories, mens and womens apparel, mens and womens footwear, camping equipment, etc. Within each Group were Demand Centers; for instance, womens apparel had as Demand Centers knit shirts, sweaters, pants, skirts, Jackets and pullovers, etc. Each Demand Center was further broken down into Item Sequences; for example, womens sweaters consisted of Midnight Mesa Handknit Cardigans, Indian Point Pullovers, Lambswool Turtlenecks, and about twenty other products. Item Sequences were further broken down into individual items, distinguished primarily by color; it was at this item level that forecasts had to be issued and, ultimately, purchase commitments had to be made. About 6,000 items appeared in one or another of the catalogs that were issued in the course of a year. 1 L. L. Bean, Inc. Corporate Strategy, Harvard Business School Case (581-159), 1981. 21tems were further broken down by size into stock-keeping units, or SWs. This was done by applying standard size-distribution breakdowns. Although an inappropriate distribution could lead to excessive inventory of some sizes and stockouts of others, management concern was directed to the item level, since there was no evidence of a better system than assuming that the distribut ion of demand by size would behave in the uture as it had in the past, and would be indistinguishable from one item to another. Items were also classified into three seasonal categories (spring, fall, and all year), and into two additional categories (new or never out) that described whether the item was a recent or more permanent member of the companys offerings, and consequently characterized the amount of historical demand data available for the item. The Bean Catalogs The major catalogs†spring, summer, fall, and Christmas†each came out in several versions. A full catalog, running from 116 to 152 pages, went to Beans regular ustomers. A smaller prospect catalog was circulated to potential customers; it contained primarily a subset of items from the full catalog. (Bean identified such prospect customers in a variety of ways, for example, through the purchase of mailing lists, or by recording recipients of gifts from other Bean customers. ) In addition, a number of specialty catalogs†Spring Weekend, Summer Camp, Fly Fishing, etc. † presented items that were unique to that catalog, as well as some items found in the major catalogs. There was some overlap in circulation: the best ustomers received almost all the catalogs, and those customers known, through past purchasing behavior, to be interested in various specialties might receive an appropriate specialty catalog in addition to the seasonal full catalogs. Item Forecasting Each catalog had a gestation period of about nine months, and its creation involved merchandising, design, product, and inventory specialists. For example, the initial conceptualization for the Fall, 1991 season began in October, 1990. Preliminary forecasts of total sales for each catalog were made in December. Product managers eveloped preliminary item forecasts by book in the December, 1990 to March, 1991 time frame. Layout and pagination of the books began in January, 1991. Initial commitments to vendors were made in January and February. In the subsequent months, as the catalogs took shape, item forecasts were repeatedly revised and finally frozen by May 1. By early July a black-and-white version of the layout was available internally. At this point, the product managers handed off their product line to the inventory managers. The completed Fall 1991 catalogs were in the hands of customers around August 1 . As the catalog generated demand, inventory managers decided on additional commitments to vendors, scheduled replenishments, handled backorders, etc. This catalog remained active through January, 1992; inventory left over at that time might be liquidated, marked down and sold through special L. L. Bean promotions, or carried over to the next year. Scott Sklar was a buyer for mens shirts. He described the forecasting process as follows: Four or five of us†my inventory buyer, some product people, and I†meet to forecast shirt sales by book. We start by ranking various items in terms of expected ollar sales. Then we actually assign dollars in accordance with the ranking. Theres discussion, arguments, complaints. People invent rules of thumb. I say invent, because there arent any good rules of thumb. We set this up on an Excel spreadsheet. We look at the book forecast and make adjustments accordingly. We look at the total of forecasted shirt sales and check it for reality. Does it feel good? Does it make sense? We do it book by book, item by item, and thats how we get an item level forecast. Of course, when we add a new item, we have to make a Judgment: will this item enerate incremental demand, and if not, from what items is it going to steal demand? And then those items need to be adjusted accordingly. 3 Barbara Hamaluk, a buyer for mens knit shirts, observed that the sum of the item forecasts for a catalog was often at variance with the dollar target for that book. Usually this roll-up comes in on the high side, so you try to reduce forecasts on certain items. Or you can Just say, if were too high by 10%, well Just slash everything across the board by 10%. We really ought to have an intermediate level of forecasts t the Demand Center level, reconcile item forecasts with Demand Center forecasts, and the latter with the book forecast. Production Commitments The typical producti on lead time for most domestic orders was eight to twelve weeks. (Of course, deliveries against a commitment could be scheduled to conform to the anticipated pattern of in-season demand. With some vendors who cooperated with L. L. Beans Quick Response initiative, it was possible, after observing some early- season demand, to place a second order, which would be delivered in sufficient time to meet late-season demand. However, with many domestic and most offshore vendors, lead times were sufficiently long so that it was impractical to place a second commitment order in the course of the season. (In the remainder of this case, then, discussion will be limited to these one-shot commitments. The commitments were generally not equal in size to the forecasts, but were determined in two steps as follows: First, historical forecast errors (expressed as AIF ratios the ratio of actual demand to forecast demand) were computed for each item in the previous year, and the frequency distribution o f these errors was compiled cross items. 3 The frequency distribution of past forecast errors was then used as a probability distribution for the as yet unrealized future forecast errors. For example, if 50% of the forecast errors for new items in the past year had been between 0. and 1. 6, then it would be assumed that with probability 0. 5, the forecast error for any new item in the current year also would fall between 0. 7 and 1. 6. So in such a case, if the frozen forecast for a particular item were 1,000 units, it was then assumed that with probability 0. 5, actual demand for that item would end up being between 700 nd 1,600 units. Next, each items commitment quantity was determined by balancing the individual items contribution margin if demanded against its liquidation cost (or value) if not demanded. Suppose, for example, that an item cost Bean $1 5, would regularly sell for $30, and could be sold at liquidation for $10. The gain for selling a marginal unit would be $30 15 = $15; the loss for failing to sell the marginal unit would be the cost less the liquidation value, i. e. $15 10 = $5. Accordingly, the optimal order size should be the 0. 75 fractile of the items probability distribution of demand. Suppose the 0. 75 fractile of the distribution of forecast errors was 1. 3, and the frozen forecast for that item was for 1,000 units. Then the 0. 75 fractile of the demand distribution would be 1,000 x 1. = 1,300, and Bean would make a commitment for 1,300 units. Rol Fessenden expressed concern that the methodology treated the errors associated with all never out items as equally representative of the forecast errors that might be anticipated for the forecast demand of any never out item (and similarly for new items). mioud think that the error distribution for some of our buyers might be ighter than for other buyers, or that the distribution for womens sweaters might have more dispersion than the distribution for mens footwear, but we cant find any real differences. Also, Im not entirely convinced that we go about estimating contribution margin and liquidation cost correctly. Mark Fasold was worried about the wide dispersion in forecast errors, both for never outs and new items. He was also concerned about the implications of the methodology: If the cost 3This was done separately for new items and for never outs; not surprisingly, the historical error istribution of never outs had less dispersion than that of new items. No other way of segmenting items had revealed significantly different distributions of forecast errors. 4 associated with understocking exceeds the cost of overstocking, which is the usual case here, we end up committing to more than the frozen forecast. And for new items, about which we obviously know very little, the excess over the frozen forecast is even greater than for never outs. The buyers are understandably upset when we commit to more than they forecast; they perceive us as going way out on a limb for new items. Exhibit 1 5